RELIGION AND COMBINED PROBABILITY

Imagine if there are two statements. How likely is it that they are facts? How probable is it that they are true? What if they are each 51% likely to be correct?

Then take them together. A combined probability will appear. The combined probability is actually merely 26%.

Apply this to the resurrection of Jesus. If it is 51% likely that the visions of Jesus really happened and if it is 51% likely that his tomb was found empty when there was no natural reason it should not have been that does not make it 51% likely that Jesus rose from the dead. It leaves us with it being only 26% per cent likely.

Apply it to the notion that the universe had a beginning. Say it is 51% probable. Say it is 51% probable that a God made the universe. That is only 26% likely that God gave the universe its beginning.

You need these being statements to be beyond reasonable doubt before you can accept them. But sadly there is no effort made to make them at least look like they are beyond reasonable doubt even if they are not.

Are the apparitions of Jesus only 51% likely to be true? And the tomb? How do you measure?

Some say that the apparitions would be 51% because it is so easy to be mistaken or misled about miracles or magic that no matter how good the evidence seems to be you are stuck with 51%. It would mean that the tomb being miraculously empty would be 51% but if you want to say somebody stole the body it would be a lot more for that is a natural explanation. There is no way to measure so if you have good evidence that a miracle happened you have to settle for 51%. All believers at least would accept that as the very least they need.

Combined probability works best with natural causes. Bring in the supernatural or the magical and you end up with a mess. And you meet only magical and religious charlatans who exaggerate how likely their magical tales are!